Inventory of Single Family Homes Lowest in 10 Years! Good for Sellers!

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) just released their latest Existing Home Sales Report on Friday. Sales of existing homes rose by the largest increase ever recorded as they rebounded 14.7% over November’s numbers and now stand at 7.7% higher than a year ago.

While this is great news for the housing market, let’s take a look at one of the main reasons why there was such a large increase in sales.

As we explained last month, the implementation of the “Know Before You Owe” (TRID) initiative delayed some closings, pushing a portion of November's would-be transactions to close in December.

"December's rebound in sales is reason for cautious optimism that the work to prepare for ‘Know Before You Owe’ is paying off," says NAR PresidentTom Salomone.

Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economist, had this to say about the surge in December sales:

"While the carryover of November's delayed transactions into December contributed greatly to the sharp increase, the overall pace taken together indicates sales these last two months maintained the healthy level of activity seen in most of 2015. Additionally, the prospect of higher mortgage rates in coming months and warm November and December weather allowed more homes to close before the end of the year."

The most important realization to come out of the report is the fact that inventory of existing homes for sale dropped dramatically from a 5.1-month supply in November to the lowest figure since January 2005, at a 3.9-month supply.

A normal market, where prices rise with inflation, is defined as having a 6-7-month supply of homes for sale. As you can see in the chart below, inventory levels in 2015 were at or below a 5.2-month supply for the entire year.

If inventory levels do not recover, this could be a challenge for sales moving forward as buyer demand remains strong and competition for the homes that are on the market continues to rise.

Bottom Line

If you are considering listing your home for sale in 2016, now is the time! With inventory levels at their lowest mark in over 10 years, listing your home for sale before the busy spring buying season will give you the most exposure to buyers and allow you to get the best price for your home.

Low Sales Due to Lack of Inventory Equates to Higher Sale Price for Sellers.

The housing crisis is finally in the rear view mirror as the real estate market moves down the road to a complete recovery. Home values are up. Home sales are up. Distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) have fallen dramatically. It seems that 2016 will be the year that the housing market again races forward.

However, there is one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: a lack of housing inventory. While buyer demand looks like it will remain strong throughout this winter, supply is not keeping up.

Here are the thoughts of a few industry experts on the subject:

Calculated Risk:

“Low inventory is probably holding down sales in many areas.”

Capital Economics:

“A lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. As demand has slowly recovered, low inventory levels have weighed on home sales.”

Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic:

“Many markets have experienced a low inventory of homes for sale along with strong buyer demand... These conditions are likely to persist as we enter 2016.”

Doug Duncan,Chief Economist at Fannie Mae:

“Several factors point to constrained housing affordability in 2016, particularly for first-time home buyers, including slow single-family supply response and limited inventory of starter homes on the market.”

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR:

“Sparse inventory and affordability issues continue to impede a large pool of buyers’ ability to buy, which is holding back sales.”

Bottom Line

If you are thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong at a time when there is very little competition. That could lead to a quick sale for a really good price.

Return on Investment. Residential Real Estate vs Stocks.

A survey by The Joint Center of Housing Studies at Harvard University reveals that when a family is buying a home they consider the financial benefits of homeownership along with the social benefits. The survey mentions things like:

• Paying rent does not make sense
• Homeownership provides a good financial opportunity
• Owning a home helps you building family wealth
• Buying a home is investing in your retirement
• Home equity gives you something to borrow against

So how did homeownership match up against other investments in 2015? Here is a chart that compares its return on investment against precious metals and the stock market last year:

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Top Reasons To List Your House For Sale Now.

If you are debating listing your house for sale this year, here is the #1 reason not to wait!

Buyer Demand Continues to Outpace the Supply of Homes For Sale

The National Association of REALTORS’ (NAR) Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun recently commented on the inventory shortage:

“While feedback from REALTORS® continues to suggest healthy levels of buyer interest, available listings that are move-in ready and in affordable price ranges remain hard to come by for many would-be buyers.”

The latest Existing Home Sales Report shows that there is currently a 5.1-month supply of homes for sale. This remains lower than the 6-month supply necessary for a normal market and well below November 2014 numbers.

The chart below details the year-over-year inventory shortages experienced in 2015:

Anything less than a six-month supply is considered a “Seller’s Market”.

Where Are Housing Prices Heading?

Today, many real estate conversations center on housing prices and where they may be headed. That is why we like the Home Price Expectation Survey.

Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists about where they believe prices are headed over the next five years. They then average the projections of all 100+ experts into a single number.

The results of their latest survey:

Home values will appreciate by 3.9% by the end of 2015, 3.4% in 2016 and 3.1% in each of the following four years (as shown below). That means the average annual appreciation will be 3.2% over the next 5 years.

The prediction for cumulative appreciation rose from 18.1% to 21.6% by 2020. Even the experts making up the most bearish quartile of the survey still are projecting a cumulative appreciation of 13.8%.

How Long To Save Up For A Down Payment On A Home.

In a recent study conducted by Builder.com, researchers determined that nationwide it would take“nearly eight years” for a first-time buyer to save enough for a down payment on their dream home.

Depending on where you live, median rents, incomes and home prices all vary. By determining the percentage a renter spends on housing in each state and the amount needed for a 10% down payment, they were able to establish how long (in years) it would take for an average resident to save.

According to the study, residents in South Dakota are able to save for a down payment the quickest in just under 3.5 years. Below is a map created using the data for each state:

What if you only needed to save 3%?

What if you were able to take advantage of one of the Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae 3% down programs? Suddenly saving for a down payment no longer takes 5 or 10 years, but becomes attainable in under two years in many states as shown in the map below.

Bottom Line

Whether you have just started to save for a down payment, or have been for years, you may be closer to your dream home than you think! Let's get together and evaluate your ability to buy today.